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Math Forum / Mathematics / Statistics / October 2008probability of passing
Q: Two possible outcomes to a test is PASS or FAIL. Is the probability of a pass 0.5 ? if not, explain why not ? My approach: We cannot take the above problem purely on the number of results and as similar to the toss of a coin. Clearly, the factor of the candidates actual preparation comes into play ( which is not given ). So the above cannot be answered until further data points for the problem is given. Would I be correct in saying the above ? > Q: Two possible outcomes to a test is PASS or FAIL. Is the probability of a pass 0.5 ? if not, explain why not ? > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > > Would I be correct in saying the above ? It is far more than candidates' actual preparation. The quality of the candidates and the difficulty of the test matter as well. I once took (and passed) a test which had not been failed at that location for 40 years: it was a bureaucratic necessity at university but the test was aimed several levels lower down the intellectual spectrum. All that you know is that the probability is between 0 and 1 ; you may believe more than this and you should change your beliefs as you get more information. >Q: Two possible outcomes to a test is PASS or FAIL. Is the probability of a pass 0.5 ? if not, explain why not ? > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > >Would I be correct in saying the above ? Too wordy. Tomorrow, the sun will rise, or it won't. Is each chance 50%? Tomorrow, the sun will rise on time, or 1 hour late, or 2 hours late. Is each chance equal? An infant born tomorrow will have a life-span somewhere between 0 and 1 million years. Is it fair to take the average? - we don't *properly* assign probabilities according to the number of categories presented, or equally across a range.  SignatureRich Ulrich |
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